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Author Topic: 2008 Election Predictions?  (Read 3507 times)

Offline mcdirk

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2008 Election Predictions?
« on: November 01, 2008, 01:23:02 PM »
Anyone following some of the hotly contested US Senate and House seats across the Country?  Up for guessing who wins what seats - what the new balance of the parties will be in the new Congress?  What states Obama and McCain will win?

What sites are people using to follow the election?  I'm partial to dailykos.com and mydd.com, but have found fivethirtyeight.com to be very useful as well.

Offline paratactical

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 05:22:07 PM »
I like fivethirtyeight, but it's pretty admittedly biased.

I think the best site for non-partisan numbers is Princeton Election Consortium. They're pretty great and have interactive maps.

Offline Jiggs

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2008, 01:19:06 AM »
I predict that whatever side loses, their supporters will claim fraud.   I also am thankful for spellcheck, I had fraud spelled wrong (Fruad :|)

Offline TRX

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Re: 2008 Election
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2008, 06:03:04 AM »

I know many who dont, but I like zogby polls and the zogby 50 state map. Though it was last updated late October.

Not long ago, I thought the election would be very close. Still I think McCain fans will not be too disappointed.
My early prediction which seems it could be wrong is that
MO and NM would be very significant states. I was not expecting Obama to win so many swing states.

I will still be surprised if Obama wins IN, NC, and VA.

My hope after the election is that it will surprise how few Democrats will be in the administration. And there will still be a few moderates in the Senate with pull.
To be seen if Lieberman will still have his posts and part of the Dem caucus.

At this time, I would say Obama 300+ electoral votes. Perhaps more than 60 M votes, and 50%+ of the popular vote. 50% might not sound like all that much, but would be significant for a Democrat especially Obama.

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Offline TRX

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2008, 06:42:02 AM »
Princeton Election Consortium. They're pretty great and have interactive maps.

Nice. I like the map distorted by electoral vote weight.
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Offline paratactical

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2008, 12:11:56 PM »
Nice. I like the map distorted by electoral vote weight.

Yeah. It's a brilliant. They were the first to use the process that fivethirtyeight is now more well known for: they take all of the polling data from across the country and rank and compare that information based upon how accurate the group doing the polling has been in the past and what methods they are currently using. It's amazingly accurate.

One thing to remember when watching the electoral votes is that Obama will get a 77 electoral vote boost late in the night when the west coast comes in. CA, WA, OR & HI will add that to his total. Obama only needs to get 200 from the east coast, midwest, southern and central states. With VA, PA and even OH swinging for Obama last week, he's going into the election with a lot of momentum.

Offline TRX

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2008, 12:22:11 PM »

I dont think it would be shocking if McCain wins VA and OH.
Will he win AZ for sure? I am again curious to see who will win NH.


200 is a good number to look for before the west coast polls close. Thanks.
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Offline mcdirk

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2008, 12:31:48 PM »
I think we'll have a good idea what is happening by 8 pm.

I hear online that Arizona is close, but that seems hard to imagine. 

I was surprised to see all the pundits on the tv this weekend suggesting that Obama would get 300+ electoral votes, what an election that would be!

Offline mcdirk

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2008, 05:20:03 PM »
Here is a poll closing time map link.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3641 

Offline TRX

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2008, 06:01:40 PM »


I predict that the SNL bash Monday night at 9pm will include
Bill Clinton speaking about Mogadishu



 :evil:
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Offline FZ

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2008, 11:16:56 PM »
I predict  either Senator  Obama or  Senator McCain will  be our next President. I've narrowed it down to two people. So predicts 'FZ The  Great.'  :lol:

Offline enigmacat

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2008, 11:44:14 AM »
Karl Rove has called it for Obama.

I'd like to know the context on that, but still!

Offline TRX

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2008, 05:26:30 PM »
I predict that whatever side loses, their supporters will claim fraud. 

Not a prediction, but I hope the election result will be clear with a margin greater than any possible tampering.

And I hope the winners and opponents would be even more gracious than Gore was.
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Offline ferna47

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2008, 05:53:35 PM »
Someone had to do it


Interviewer: What's your prediction for the election?
Clubber Lang: My prediction?
Interviewer: Yes, your prediction.

Clubber Lang: Pain!

Offline FZ

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2008, 01:06:26 PM »
Someone had to do it


Interviewer: What's your prediction for the election?
Clubber Lang: My prediction?
Interviewer: Yes, your prediction.

Clubber Lang: Pain!

Cool shot!  :mrgreen:  I met 'Mr T' one time  in a  Barber shop, of all places, in NYC. He was  going through some health problems  at the time.

Offline FZ

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Re: 2008 Election Predictions?
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2008, 01:10:58 PM »
I predict that whatever side loses, their supporters will claim fraud.   I also am thankful for spellcheck, I had fraud spelled wrong (Fruad :|)

Not true. In 60' when Kennedy 'stole'  the election from Nixon, Republicans were  silent. I think human errors  happen in every election, however, it's  only a  'conspiracy'  when Republicans  win?  I know, I saw a shlockumentary  on it.  :roll:


 

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